Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic, regardless of the reference time scale. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension and estimate the resulting dynamics from a superstatistics perspective. In its simplest form, such a model entails a hierarchy between a low-level observation model and a high-level transition model. The observation model describes the local behavior of a system, and the transition model specifies how the parameters of the observation model evolve over time. To overcome the estimation challenges resulting from the complexity of superstatistical models, we develop and validate a simulation-based deep learning method for Bayesian inference, which can recover both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. We first benchmark our method against two existing frameworks capable of estimating time-varying parameters. We then apply our method to fit a dynamic version of the diffusion decision model to long time series of human response times data. Our results show that the deep learning approach is very efficient in capturing the temporal dynamics of the model. Furthermore, we show that the erroneous assumption of static or homogeneous parameters will hide important temporal information.

检测与培训数据偏离的测试数据是安全和健壮的机器学习的核心问题。通过生成模型学到的可能性，例如，通过标准对数似然训练的归一流流量，作为异常得分的表现不佳。我们建议使用未标记的辅助数据集和概率异常得分进行异常检测。我们使用在辅助数据集上训练的自我监督功能提取器，并通过最大程度地提高分布数据的可能性并最大程度地减少辅助数据集上的可能性来训练提取功能的正常化流程。我们表明，这等同于学习分布和辅助特征密度之间的归一化正差。我们在基准数据集上进行实验，并显示出与可能性，似然比方法和最新异常检测方法相比的强大改进。

通过向每个数据示例添加校准的噪声来保护个人的隐私，差异隐私（DP）已成为保护个人隐私的黄金标准。尽管对分类数据的应用很简单，但在图像上下文中的可用性受到限制。与分类数据相反，图像的含义是相邻像素的空间相关性固有的，使噪声的简单应用不可行。可逆的神经网络（INN）表现出了出色的生成性能，同时仍提供量化确切可能性的能力。他们的原理是基于将复杂的分布转换为一个简单的分布，例如图像进入球形高斯。我们假设在旅馆的潜在空间中添加噪音可以实现差异化的私有图像修改。操纵潜在空间会导致修改的图像，同时保留重要的细节。此外，通过对数据集提供的元数据进行调节，我们旨在使对下游任务的尺寸保持重要意义，例如分类未触及的，同时更改其他可能包含识别信息的其他部分。我们称我们的方法意识到差异隐私（CADP）。我们对公共基准测试数据集以及专用医疗进行实验。此外，我们还展示了方法对分类数据的普遍性。源代码可在https://github.com/cardio-ai/cadp上公开获得。

神经密度估计值证明在各种研究领域进行高效的仿真贝叶斯推理方面具有显着强大。特别是，Bayesflow框架使用两步方法来实现在仿真程序隐式地定义似然函数的设置中的摊销参数估计。但是当模拟是现实差的差异时，这种推断是多么忠实？在本文中，我们概念化了基于模拟的推论中出现的模型误操作的类型，并系统地研究了这些误操作下的Bayesflow框架的性能。我们提出了一个增强优化目标，它对潜伏数据空间上的概率结构施加了概率结构，并利用了最大平均差异（MMD）来检测推理期间的可能灾难性的误操作，破坏了所获得的结果的有效性。我们验证了许多人工和现实的误操作的检测标准，从玩具共轭模型到复杂的决策和疾病爆发动态的复杂模型应用于实际数据。此外，我们表明后部推理误差随着真实数据生成分布与潜在摘要空间中的典型模拟集之间的常数而增加。因此，我们展示了MMD的双重实用性作为检测模型误操作的方法和作为验证摊销贝叶斯推理的忠实性的代理。

流行病学中的数学模型是一种不可或缺的工具，可以确定传染病的动态和重要特征。除了他们的科学价值之外，这些模型通常用于在正在进行的爆发期间提供政治决策和干预措施。然而，通过将复杂模型连接到真实数据来可靠地推断正在进行的爆发的动态仍然很难，并且需要费力的手动参数拟合或昂贵的优化方法，这些方法必须从划痕中重复给定模型的每个应用。在这项工作中，我们用专门的神经网络的流行病学建模的新组合来解决这个问题。我们的方法需要两个计算阶段：在初始训练阶段中，描述该流行病的数学模型被用作神经网络的教练，该主管是关于全球可能疾病动态的全球知识。在随后的推理阶段，训练有素的神经网络处理实际爆发的观察到的数据，并且揭示了模型的参数，以便实际地再现观察到的动态并可可靠地预测未来的进展。通过其灵活的框架，我们的仿真方法适用于各种流行病学模型。此外，由于我们的方法是完全贝叶斯的，它旨在纳入所有可用的关于合理参数值的先前知识，并返回这些参数上的完整关节后部分布。我们的方法在德国的早期Covid-19爆发阶段的应用表明，我们能够获得可靠的概率估计对重要疾病特征，例如生成时间，未检测到的感染部分，症状发作前的传播可能性，以及报告延迟非常适中的现实观测。

Neural compression offers a domain-agnostic approach to creating codecs for lossy or lossless compression via deep generative models. For sequence compression, however, most deep sequence models have costs that scale with the sequence length rather than the sequence complexity. In this work, we instead treat data sequences as observations from an underlying continuous-time process and learn how to efficiently discretize while retaining information about the full sequence. As a consequence of decoupling sequential information from its temporal discretization, our approach allows for greater compression rates and smaller computational complexity. Moreover, the continuous-time approach naturally allows us to decode at different time intervals. We empirically verify our approach on multiple domains involving compression of video and motion capture sequences, showing that our approaches can automatically achieve reductions in bit rates by learning how to discretize.

Recent neural compression methods have been based on the popular hyperprior framework. It relies on Scalar Quantization and offers a very strong compression performance. This contrasts from recent advances in image generation and representation learning, where Vector Quantization is more commonly employed. In this work, we attempt to bring these lines of research closer by revisiting vector quantization for image compression. We build upon the VQ-VAE framework and introduce several modifications. First, we replace the vanilla vector quantizer by a product quantizer. This intermediate solution between vector and scalar quantization allows for a much wider set of rate-distortion points: It implicitly defines high-quality quantizers that would otherwise require intractably large codebooks. Second, inspired by the success of Masked Image Modeling (MIM) in the context of self-supervised learning and generative image models, we propose a novel conditional entropy model which improves entropy coding by modelling the co-dependencies of the quantized latent codes. The resulting PQ-MIM model is surprisingly effective: its compression performance on par with recent hyperprior methods. It also outperforms HiFiC in terms of FID and KID metrics when optimized with perceptual losses (e.g. adversarial). Finally, since PQ-MIM is compatible with image generation frameworks, we show qualitatively that it can operate under a hybrid mode between compression and generation, with no further training or finetuning. As a result, we explore the extreme compression regime where an image is compressed into 200 bytes, i.e., less than a tweet.

Non-invasive prostate cancer detection from MRI has the potential to revolutionize patient care by providing early detection of clinically-significant disease (ISUP grade group >= 2), but has thus far shown limited positive predictive value. To address this, we present an MRI-based deep learning method for predicting clinically significant prostate cancer applicable to a patient population with subsequent ground truth biopsy results ranging from benign pathology to ISUP grade group~5. Specifically, we demonstrate that mixed supervision via diverse histopathological ground truth improves classification performance despite the cost of reduced concordance with image-based segmentation. That is, where prior approaches have utilized pathology results as ground truth derived from targeted biopsies and whole-mount prostatectomy to strongly supervise the localization of clinically significant cancer, our approach also utilizes weak supervision signals extracted from nontargeted systematic biopsies with regional localization to improve overall performance. Our key innovation is performing regression by distribution rather than simply by value, enabling use of additional pathology findings traditionally ignored by deep learning strategies. We evaluated our model on a dataset of 973 (testing n=160) multi-parametric prostate MRI exams collected at UCSF from 2015-2018 followed by MRI/ultrasound fusion (targeted) biopsy and systematic (nontargeted) biopsy of the prostate gland, demonstrating that deep networks trained with mixed supervision of histopathology can significantly exceed the performance of the Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) clinical standard for prostate MRI interpretation.

Almonds are one of the most lucrative products of California, but are also among the most sensitive to climate change. In order to better understand the relationship between climatic factors and almond yield, an automated machine learning framework is used to build a collection of machine learning models. The prediction skill is assessed using historical records. Future projections are derived using 17 downscaled climate outputs. The ensemble mean projection displays almond yield changes under two different climate scenarios, along with two technology development scenarios, where the role of technology development is highlighted. The mean projections and distributions provide insightful results to stakeholders and can be utilized by policymakers for climate adaptation.